This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.
Consumers and businesses alike are expressing increasing concern over the possibility of a recession for the US economy in 2022 or 2023. Analysts have referenced rising interest rates, high inflation, and a brief inversion of a portion of the yield curve, among other datapoints, as evidence that may indicate upcoming contraction. We at ITR Economics are here to cut through the headlines and reassure you that the US economy will grow through at least 2024 – we do not anticipate a recession until 2026. Our forecast for US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calls for a general slowing growth trend to culminate in relatively flat GDP around early 2023. The pace of growth will then pick up steam into 2024.