This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

US Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) in the second quarter of 2022 came in 0.23% below the first quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction and fulfilling the technical definition of a recession. While the word “recession” tends to elicit fear, we do not believe the current economic situation warrants significant concern. The decline was led by imports outpacing exports, changes in private inventory investment (not a reduction, but rather a smaller increase), lower fixed investment in residential and nonresidential structures, and a decrease in government expenditures and investments. However, core segments such as consumer spending, the labor market, and the industrial sector are on solid footing − more on this below.

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

Headlines today are full of recession fears, with mentions of falling stock prices, high inflation, and rising interest rates. To better understand whether we are actually headed toward a severe recession, let’s take a closer look at the underlying fundamentals in the economy.

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

Consumers and businesses alike are expressing increasing concern over the possibility of a recession for the US economy in 2022 or 2023. Analysts have referenced rising interest rates, high inflation, and a brief inversion of a portion of the yield curve, among other datapoints, as evidence that may indicate upcoming contraction. We at ITR Economics are here to cut through the headlines and reassure you that the US economy will grow through at least 2024 – we do not anticipate a recession until 2026. Our forecast for US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calls for a general slowing growth trend to culminate in relatively flat GDP around early 2023. The pace of growth will then pick up steam into 2024.

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.