This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.
US Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) in the second quarter of 2022 came in 0.23% below the first quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction and fulfilling the technical definition of a recession. While the word “recession” tends to elicit fear, we do not believe the current economic situation warrants significant concern. The decline was led by imports outpacing exports, changes in private inventory investment (not a reduction, but rather a smaller increase), lower fixed investment in residential and nonresidential structures, and a decrease in government expenditures and investments. However, core segments such as consumer spending, the labor market, and the industrial sector are on solid footing − more on this below.