Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Federal Reserve

Posted by IMEC on Sep 16, 2022 12:36:40 PM

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

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A Macroeconomic Check-in

Posted by IMEC on Aug 26, 2022 2:40:45 PM

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

US Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) in the second quarter of 2022 came in 0.23% below the first quarter, marking two consecutive quarters of contraction and fulfilling the technical definition of a recession. While the word “recession” tends to elicit fear, we do not believe the current economic situation warrants significant concern. The decline was led by imports outpacing exports, changes in private inventory investment (not a reduction, but rather a smaller increase), lower fixed investment in residential and nonresidential structures, and a decrease in government expenditures and investments. However, core segments such as consumer spending, the labor market, and the industrial sector are on solid footing − more on this below.

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Consumer and Corporate Check Up

Posted by IMEC on Jul 22, 2022 8:26:03 AM

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

Headlines today are full of recession fears, with mentions of falling stock prices, high inflation, and rising interest rates. To better understand whether we are actually headed toward a severe recession, let’s take a closer look at the underlying fundamentals in the economy.

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Beyond Headlines: What to Do With the Latest Economic News

Posted by IMEC on May 19, 2022 2:13:39 PM

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

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Is a Recession Looming? A Strong US Consumer Suggests Otherwise

Posted by IMEC on Apr 21, 2022 11:54:51 AM

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

Consumers and businesses alike are expressing increasing concern over the possibility of a recession for the US economy in 2022 or 2023. Analysts have referenced rising interest rates, high inflation, and a brief inversion of a portion of the yield curve, among other datapoints, as evidence that may indicate upcoming contraction. We at ITR Economics are here to cut through the headlines and reassure you that the US economy will grow through at least 2024 – we do not anticipate a recession until 2026. Our forecast for US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calls for a general slowing growth trend to culminate in relatively flat GDP around early 2023. The pace of growth will then pick up steam into 2024.

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Economic Fundamentals Matter Most, but War in Ukraine Poses Risks

Posted by IMEC on Mar 17, 2022 12:47:56 PM

This article is provided by ITR Economics in partnership with IMEC.

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Infographic: The Defense Manufacturing Supply Chain

Posted by IMEC on Jul 14, 2020 12:26:40 PM

The defense manufacturing supply chain is critical to both the U.S. economy and national security. Support is needed for emerging technologies such as directed-energy weapons, hypersonics and cybersecurity, all of which are vital to national defense. While challenges exist, there have been remarkable successes due to the MEP National Network’sTM dedication to assist small and medium-sized manufacturers across the U.S. and in Puerto Rico. Manufacturers assisted have included those that supply a material, component or subsytem used in a defense or national security system. The Network continues to provide support in building a robust defense supply chain.

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